Risk and Inflation Modelling for Scenario Analysis

Einleitung/Dauer

Inflation and interest movements depend on various factors which have become more volatile recently. Mostly we treat the ORSA scenarios relatively simply by calculating a parallel shift of a number of basis points or a rotation. Currently insurers are confronted with changes which are emerging simultaneously. Some clear examples are: Financial stress in France, import levies volatility, direct actions against companies, causing shortages and disruptions in optimised supply chains in the automotive industry.

Recently we also have seen in analysis for the financial industry a clear dependency on big tech companies. It is expected that other companies and governmental organisations are similarly exposed to big tech companies.

Lastly, the increases for government budget for defence and infrastructure put additional pressure on the price levels in the economy due to the fact that production capacity cannot expand accordingly. Such situations have an effect on future inflation rates depending on how quickly the additional budgets are spent.

Some elements can be approached rationally, but behavioural aspects will also be considered. For example the import levies imposed by some countries and the retaliatory reactions to these levies can be extreme. This significantly increases the volatility.

The core question for the scenario work is to combine the state of the various input variables into storylines for 5-8 scenarios in order to keep the scenario analysis process reasonable.

In this web session, we will look into the drivers of inflation and risk in order to create a set of scenarios which are meaningful for steering the insurance business. Both life insurance and general scenarios will be discussed.

The agenda is planned as follows:
1. Overview of inflation drivers and influence
2. Overview of the interest rate drivers
3. Expected future changes related to the drivers
4. Which mitigating actions can be taken?

Preliminary Programme
Thursday, 16 April 2026
09:00-10:30 Overview of Inflation drivers and influence
10:30-11:00 Break
11:00-12:30 Overview of the interest rate drivers
12:30-13:15 Break
13:15-14:15 Expected future changes related to the drivers
14:15-15:15 Which mitigating actions can be taken?

All the above times are given in CEST (Central European Summer Time).

Vorgehensweise und Ziele

Participants will gain an in-depth understanding of the advanced scenario-analysis, and how to translate scenario outcomes into implications for business units, capital allocation, and individual risks. This knowledge is intended to support risk assessment and business management.

Teilnehmer

This web session is particularly intended for actuaries involved in enterprise risk management, risk communication, business support or strategic decision making.

During the session, participants will actively develop scenarios.

Technical Requirements
Please check with your IT department if your firewall and computer settings support web session participation (the programme Zoom will be used for this online training). Please also make sure to join the web session with a stable internet connection.

Dozierende

Dr Gerrit Jan van den Brink
Dr Gerrit Jan van den Brink is working as a senior advisor via his company Risk Sigma GmbH on risk management, ESG, data and Artificial Intelligence topics. Is this role he advises companies and their senior management on implementation and further development of Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks. He acts as trusted advisor to the C-Level of organisations. Gerrit Jan has worked 34 years in the Financial and Energy industry in various roles (CRO, CFO, Operations Director and Auditor) in all three lines of defense. Gerrit Jan is a lecturer at various Universities in Germany and the Netherlands.

Sprache/Kurztitel

The language of the web session will be English.

CPD Credits
For this web session, the following CPD credits are available under the CPD scheme of the relevant national actuarial association:

• Austria: 5 points
• Belgium:  5 points
• Bulgaria:  8 points
• Croatia: individual accreditation
• Czechia:  5 hours
• Denmark 5 credits
• Estonia:  5 hours
• Finland: 4.5 points
• France:  30 points
• Germany:  5 hours
• Greece: 7 points
• Hungary:  5 hours
• Iceland: 5 credits
• Ireland: 5 hours
• Italy: GdLA individual accreditation
• Latvia: 5 hours
• Lithuania: 5 hours
• Netherlands:  approx. 5 points (individual accreditation)
• Norway: 5 points
• Poland: 5 hours
• Portugal: 5 hours
• Serbia: 5 hours
• Slovakia:  individual accreditation
• Slovenia:  individual accreditation
• Spain: CAC: 5 hours, IAE: 5 hours
• Switzerland:  individual accreditation
• USA: SOA (Section B): up to 6.0 hours

No responsibility is taken for the accuracy of this information.